Written as of June 4: As we head into June, the national housing market is a mixed bag of challenges and opportunities – but overall, things are looking more stable than the roller-coaster of a few years ago. Here’s a quick snapshot of what MLOs are seeing out there.
💸 Interest Rates – A New Normal
Mortgage rates remain elevated compared to the ultra-low levels of 2020-2021. The 30-year fixed is hovering in the mid-6% range on average, and experts predict rates will stay in this general ballpark through 2025.
It seems we’re in a “new normal” of persistent ~6% rates. While that’s higher than what recent first-time buyers expect, it’s worth remembering that historically, 6% isn’t that crazy. Some of us bought our first homes when rates were 8%+. Still, today’s higher rates do mean affordability is tighter for borrowers.
🏠 Purchase Market and Inventory
The spring buying season kicked off with limited inventory (continuing a trend we’ve seen for a while). A lot of homeowners felt “locked in” by their low rates and were hesitant to list their homes, which means buyers had fewer choices.
The good news? We’re seeing gradual improvement to start the summer. Housing supply is inching up in some markets. Nationally, the inventory of homes for sale has been slowly increasing – Realtor.com forecasts the overall supply could rise to about 4 months’ worth of homes, making 2025 the most buyer-friendly market in nearly a decade.
That’s still not a true buyer’s market, but it’s a relief from the frenzied ultra-low inventory days. Buyers may find slightly less competition this summer than in the past couple of years, which is a welcome change.
🫰 Home Prices
Home prices on the whole have moderated. We aren’t seeing the double-digit price jumps of the pandemic boom. In many areas, prices have leveled off or are growing at a much slower pace (a few percent a year) – more in line with normal trends.
This moderation, combined with creative buy-downs and incentive programs, is helping some buyers manage the affordability squeeze. For MLOs, it’s a great time to educate clients: a balanced market means they might not have to bid $50k over asking anymore, and there could be opportunities to negotiate closing cost credits or other perks.
↪️ Refinance and Equity Opportunities
While higher rates have kept refinance activity low compared to two years ago, there are still pockets of opportunity. Many homeowners have gained substantial equity due to the past years’ home price increases. We’re seeing borrowers leverage that equity for cash-out refinances or home equity lines, often for renovations (since if you can’t find a new house, why not improve the one you’re in?).
And should rates dip a bit from current levels, expect a wave of refi interest. In fact, industry forecasts are optimistic that total refinance volume will tick up this year and next.
Be prepared to run those scenarios for clients – for example, refinancing from 7% down to 6% can still yield meaningful savings or more manageable payments for some homeowners, especially if they have higher-interest debt to consolidate.
Overall, the June market is steady. It’s not the easiest environment – higher rates and low inventory require some extra hustle – but it’s also not the sky-is-falling scenario some feared. Buyers and sellers are adjusting to the new normal.
As an MLO, your expertise is as important as ever: getting borrowers prepped and approved, helping them navigate options (like adjustable-rate mortgages or buydowns), and staying positive and solution-oriented.
The summer months typically bring active buyers out, and with a slightly more balanced market, we might actually enjoy a healthier pace of business. Stay on top of the news, keep educating your clients, and you’ll navigate whatever this season brings.
🌷 Seasonal Snapshot: Summer Vibes
June marks the official start of summer! 🌞 For many of us, that means BBQs, baseball, and maybe a little vacation time to recharge before the fall. In the mortgage world, summer can also mean a busy purchase season as families move during school break – so don’t forget to take some time for yourself amid the rush.
This month, we also celebrate Father’s Day (shout-out to all the awesome dads who can balance loan files and diaper duty!). Whether you’re a father, grandfather, or just celebrating one, we hope you have a relaxing and enjoyable time with family.
And since it’s National Homeownership Month, take pride in the role you play every day in helping people become homeowners. Every loan closed is someone finding a home – and that’s something pretty special. 🏡