**Sources (with links) used for this article are compiled at the bottom. These sources would also be good for further reading/research into the topic.
The real estate and mortgage world is stepping into November with something we haven’t felt in a while... a bit of hope. After months of high rates, hesitant buyers, and sluggish deals, the market is finally showing improvement in certain areas. Rates are cooling off, inventory is building up, and prices are staying steady. It’s not a full-blown rally yet, but the winds are shifting, and both real estate agents and MLOs can likely feel it. Let’s take a look at what’s going on and what might be ahead.
Mortgage Rates Are Finally Easing Up
It’s been a long time coming, but mortgage rates have started to dip. As of the end of October 2025, the average 30-year fixed rate is around 6.3%–6.4%, down from well above 7% earlier in the year. This is good news for homebuyers and refinancers. Lower rates mean slightly lower monthly payments, easing the pressure on buyers’ budgets. In fact, many homeowners who bought or refinanced at the peak rates are now looking into refinancing at these lower levels to save money.
What’s Behind the Decline?
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate in both September and October, which has helped pull mortgage rates down. And with no Fed meeting scheduled in November, experts say rates will likely stay in this mid-6% range for now.
“If the Fed doesn’t meet in November, I expect mortgage rates to drift with the bond market… modest day-to-day moves, not big swings,” one mortgage professional noted.
In other words, barring any big economic surprises, we shouldn’t see any wild rate spikes this month. Some even predict that by early 2026, we could flirt with rates below 6%, but for November, steady-as-she-goes is the theme.
Impact Already
The recent dip in rates has already had an impact. Mortgage applications jumped in late October as soon as rates fell. Refinance applications surged (lenders saw a huge uptick compared to a year ago), and purchase loan applications also nudged up. This tells us there are buyers out there waiting on the sidelines for better financing conditions, and some of them are now stepping forward.
It’s a refreshing change after months of slow activity. As one lender pointed out, when rates were at their peak, even adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) grew in popularity as borrowers looked for any way to save. Now that rates are coming down, more borrowers are comfortable choosing fixed-rate loans again. Overall, the rate relief is bringing a bit of life back to the lending world, which is welcome news for MLOs and brokers.
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Home Sales Show Signs of Life
Home sales have been in a rut for much of 2025, but there are glimmers of improvement now. The latest data (from September) showed a 1.5% increase in existing home sales nationally from the previous month. In fact, September’s sales pace was the highest in seven months.
That’s still a relatively slow pace by historical standards, but the key is that the trend is finally ticking up instead of down. It seems the combination of slightly lower rates and a bit more inventory is giving buyers the nudge they needed.
Encouraging Uptick
Industry experts are encouraged by this uptick. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of REALTORS®, recently said that “falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales” – exactly what we’d hope to see. Buyers who were priced out by both high rates and high prices are slowly coming back as affordability improves.
Sales rose in most regions of the country in recent months, especially in the South and Northeast, which saw the biggest gains. The only region still lagging a bit was the Midwest, but even there, the year-over-year sales numbers are slightly up.
Historical Low
Now, let’s keep it real... home sales are nowhere near where they used to be. In fact, the number of homes changing hands is at a low not seen since the 1990s.
Many deals have been stalled or delayed as buyers and sellers try to wait out the market. But the fact that sales are rising again – even slowly – is a positive sign.
We may not get a big year-end rush, but “sideways” is better than downward when it comes to sales trends. MLOs and agents might start feeling a bit more activity in their pipelines compared to the summer doldrums.
Higher-End Sales
One interesting detail: the homes that are selling lately tend to be on the higher end of the market. Sales of luxury homes ($1M and up) jumped by double digits over the past year, while starter-home sales saw only modest growth. This suggests wealthier buyers are leading the charge, perhaps because they’re less sensitive to interest rates or have cash on hand.
Meanwhile, first-time buyers, though still not as active as we’d like, did increase their share of purchases to about 30%. That’s up from 26% a year ago, an encouraging sign that some younger buyers are finding a way in despite the challenges. We’d love to see that number climb further, but for now, any improvement is welcome.
More Homes to Choose From (Finally)
For the past few years, one of the biggest hurdles for real estate agents and buyers has been the incredibly low inventory of homes for sale. That tight supply has been a key reason home prices stayed so high.
The good news is that inventory has been creeping upward. Nationally, the number of homes on the market in early fall was about 14% higher than a year ago. In plain English, buyers have more options now than they did last year.
Housing Supply
In fact, housing supply (measured in “months of inventory”) is around 4.5 to 4.6 months as of the latest reports. That’s the highest level of inventory we’ve seen since the early days of the pandemic. A balanced market is typically considered around 4 to 6 months of supply, so we’re inching back toward normalcy.
It’s not a full-on buyer’s market... but it’s no longer the extreme seller’s market where homes would get snatched up in one weekend with a dozen offers. Properties are sitting on the market longer these days (about 33 days on average, compared to just 28 days a year ago). That means buyers can take a bit more time to shop and negotiate, rather than feeling forced to make a split-second decision.
Why Are We Seeing More Inventory?
Part of it is seasonal (fall usually sees a modest slowdown in sales, which can leave more listings available). But a big factor is that many buyers pumped the brakes over the past year due to high costs, so homes have accumulated on the market. At the same time, new listings are still not flooding in... many homeowners are locked into ultra-low interest rates from 2020-2021 and are reluctant to sell and give those up.
So the inventory gains are less about a surge of new sellers and more about existing listings sticking around longer. We’re basically in a bit of a standoff. Buyers are waiting for better affordability, and sellers are waiting for better offers. The recent slight improvement in conditions is starting to break this stalemate just enough to bump up the inventory.
More Opportunities to Match...
For real estate agents, this inventory trend has a silver lining. More homes on the market means more opportunities to match buyers with something they like. It also means sellers need to be realistic. Pricing is key when buyers have other options to choose from.
We’re actually seeing about 1 in 5 sellers cutting their asking price before sale, which was almost unheard of during the red-hot market a couple of years back. Buyers, on the other hand, may find they have a bit more bargaining power.
In fact, one recent analysis noted there are now far more home listings than there are buyers in the market, a gap near record levels. For those active buyers, this translates to less competition and more room to negotiate (finally!).
Region & Price Point Variation
Of course, inventory levels vary a lot by region and price point. Some markets (especially in parts of the South and Mountain West where there’s been lots of new construction) have seen bigger increases in homes for sale, tipping toward a buyer’s market.
Other areas (like many Northeast cities and the West Coast tech hubs) still have relatively tight supply, so conditions remain tougher for buyers there.
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Home Prices Holding Steady, Not Falling
With everything else that’s happened, like spiking rates, cooling sales, and more inventory, you might wonder, what gives with home prices? Interestingly, home prices nationally are more or less holding steady and even rising a tiny bit.
The median existing-home price in the U.S. was around $415,000 in the latest data, up about 2% from a year ago. That’s a very small increase, basically keeping pace with inflation.
In other words, home values on average aren’t really dropping, but they’re not skyrocketing anymore either. They’ve essentially flattened out compared to the runaway gains of a couple of years back.
Why No Big Price Crash?
It comes down to supply and demand fundamentals. Even though buyers have pulled back, there’s still a shortage of homes in the long run (we under-built housing for much of the past decade). And crucially, as mentioned, a lot of homeowners are in a comfortable spot. They have low mortgage payments locked in and plenty of home equity, so they’re not desperate to sell.
We’re not seeing distress or foreclosures rise in any significant way. In fact, distressed sales are only around 2% of transactions, the same as last year. Without forced selling, home prices tend to be stickier. Sellers would rather wait than fire-sale their house for a huge discount.
Cooled in Once-Booming Markets
That said, prices have cooled off in some of the once-booming markets. There are a few cities (especially those that saw the biggest jumps during the pandemic, or places with a lot of new construction) where prices have dipped slightly from their peak.
For example, parts of Florida and Texas have seen flat or slightly down year-over-year prices, reflecting that those markets got a bit overheated and are now adjusting.
On the flip side, some more affordable mid-sized markets are still seeing modest price increases because they remain in high demand (think places where people are moving for jobs or cheaper living).
Overall Stability
Overall, though, the big picture is stability. Most homeowners have gained tremendous equity over the past few years, and they’re managing to hold onto those gains. For buyers, while homes are not exactly “cheap” now, the price growth has slowed to a crawl, which at least beats the double-digit jumps we saw in 2021. In a sense, prices are high but stable, and combined with the recent drop in mortgage rates, that slightly improves affordability going forward.
Not Expecting a Crash
Real estate agents and MLOs can take some comfort in explaining to clients that we’re not expecting a housing crash. The consensus among economists is that a full-scale price crash is highly unlikely in the current environment. The conditions that would normally precede a big drop, like oversupply, a wave of foreclosures, or a weak job market, just aren’t present.
Instead, we have a scenario of limited supply and steady demand, which should keep a floor under prices. So buyers sitting on the fence, hoping for prices to plummet, might be waiting a long time. If you find a home you love and can afford it, the data suggests that home values are likely to gradually rise over time from here (albeit moderately). And if prices do dip in a particular locale, it’s likely to be a modest correction, not a free-fall.
A Brighter Horizon for November and Beyond
As we turn the page into November 2025, the mood is cautiously optimistic. No one expects the market to suddenly roar back to previous levels (we still have challenges like affordability and economic uncertainty), but the worst seems to be behind us. Mortgage rates are off their highs and could drift a bit lower in the coming months. This gives buyers and refinancers a window of opportunity.
In fact, some lenders are encouraging clients to “date the rate, marry the home,” meaning that if you find the right house, it can make sense to buy now and refinance later if rates drop further. After all, once that perfect home is sold to someone else, you might not get another shot at it. Meanwhile, any future rate cuts can be taken advantage of when they occur.
Seasonal Perspective
From a seasonal perspective, the late fall and winter are typically slower in real estate. We might see a usual holiday slowdown in November and December. However, this year could be a bit different. With the recent positive trends, and many would-be buyers having sat out the spring and summer, there’s potential for some of that pent-up demand to trickle back even during the colder months.
Agents might notice that the buyers who are out shopping now are more serious and motivated, since casual lookers have mostly stepped back. It could actually be a sneaky good time for determined buyers to make their move, before more competition returns in 2026.
Sellers
For sellers, pricing realistically and perhaps being willing to negotiate will be key in this environment.
Homes are selling, but buyers are choosier. The deals that happen are often win-win... sellers still get solid prices (near record highs in many cases), and buyers get concessions like price reductions or help with closing costs that weren’t on the table two years ago.
Strengthen in 2026
Looking further out, economists expect the housing market to gradually strengthen in 2026 as interest rates potentially ease back into more historically normal ranges (possibly the low- to mid-5% range by late next year). This could bring a lot of sidelined buyers back into play. Additionally, the huge cohort of millennials now in their 30s will continue to drive housing demand, whether through buying first homes or upgrading as their families grow.
On the supply side, home builders have been ramping up construction of new homes, which adds inventory and could further stabilize prices and provide more options (especially in fast-growing areas). All of these factors point to a slow but steady uptick in activity beyond November.
TLDR...
In summary, as we enter November 2025, the housing market is in a better spot than it was a few months ago. Mortgage rates are kinder, sales are inching up, inventory is improving, and prices remain firm but not crazy. It’s a more manageable market for everyone... buyers, sellers, agents, and loan officers.
While challenges remain (affordability is still tough for many and economic uncertainty lingers), there’s a growing sense that the market is stabilizing rather than spiraling.
For those of us in the real estate and mortgage industry, that’s reason to smile. After riding out the storm of the past year, we can feel encouraged that conditions are moving in the right direction.
So, here’s to a hopeful November! Whether you’re helping a client lock in a rate or find that perfect home, the environment is gradually improving. Stay informed, keep communicating with clients about these trends, and above all, stay positive. The outlook is looking a little brighter each week!
Sources
- National Association of REALTORS® – “Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.5% Increase in September 2025” (News Release, Oct 19, 2025).
- Reuters – “US existing home sales hit 7-month high; affordability remains a challenge” (Lucia Mutikani, Oct 23, 2025).
- CBS News – “What will happen to mortgage rates this November if there’s no Fed meeting? Experts weigh in.” (Sharon Wu, Oct 31, 2025).
- Mortgage Bankers Association – Weekly Applications Survey Press Release (Oct 29, 2025).
- HouseCanary Blog – “2025 Housing Market Predictions: The 10 Metros Set To Boom This Fall” (Oct 14, 2025).