Week of June 23: How’s the housing market this week? In a nutshell, the U.S. residential real estate market is gradually tilting back toward balance. This week’s national data shows that buyers have more homes to choose from and prices are leveling off, although high mortgage rates are still keeping affordability in check. Buyer and seller confidence is improving modestly, and market activity is steady if not spectacular.
Below, we break down the key trends – from inventory growth to pricing dynamics, interest rates, and buyer behavior – to keep you informed and help you advise your clients.
The tone is optimistic yet realistic: conditions are more buyer-friendly than the frenzied markets of 2021-2022, but challenges remain for both buyers and sellers this week.
Inventory Rebound Eases Pressure on Buyers
One of the most noteworthy shifts in this week’s market is the boost in housing supply. Active inventory has climbed significantly from a year ago, giving buyers more options than they’ve had in recent years. In fact, the number of homes for sale nationally is about 28% higher than this time last year.
By the latest counts, active listings have surpassed 1 million homes on the market for the seventh week in a row – the highest inventory level since late 2019. This marks the continuation of a steady inventory rebound (84 consecutive weeks of year-over-year gains), a welcome relief after the severe shortages of the pandemic era.
Factors of Inventory Growth
Several factors are driving this inventory growth. New listings (sellers putting homes up for sale) are ticking up – roughly 5% to 6% higher than a year ago in recent weeks.
While many homeowners still hesitate to sell (often due to their own low mortgage rates they don’t want to give up), we are seeing more people list their homes this summer than last, which boosts overall supply. More new construction is also helping in some regions; for example, faster building in the South has pushed some local inventories above pre-pandemic levels.
For real estate agents, this inventory rebound means your buyers have a bit more breathing room. With sellers no longer extremely scarce, the intense bidding wars of the past few years have cooled.
Days on Market
Homes are staying on the market slightly longer: the typical home is taking about 5–6 days more to sell than a year ago, with a current median time on market around 5 to 7 weeks (approximately 36–51 days, similar to pre-2020 norms).
This slower pace eases some pressure on buyers – they don’t have to make split-second decisions on homes as often, and there’s a better chance to schedule showings and inspections before a home gets snapped up. As one industry report noted, competition among buyers has fallen to the lowest level for this time of year in recent memory, making the market “a lot more buyer-friendly than in recent years”.
That said, today’s inventory is not yet back to pre-pandemic “normal”. Total supply, while improved, remains below 2018-2019 levels in many parts of the country. Buyers have more choice than last year, but we’re still in a historically tighter market compared to, say, 2019.
Translation for agents: advise your buyers that they can afford to be a bit more selective now, but truly great listings (in prime condition or location) can still go quickly. For sellers, emphasize that listing in this environment is not as daunting as it was when inventory was rock-bottom – there’s decent buyer traffic – but they should expect more competition from other listings than a year ago.
Prices Hold Steady as Market Rebalances
Unlike the roller-coaster price surges of a couple of years ago, home prices nationwide are essentially holding steady this week. The median list price is roughly unchanged (0% year-over-year), and the median sale price is up by only about 1% from this time last year.
In fact, according to Redfin data, the median U.S. sale price hit a record ~$396,500 for the mid-June period, which is a new high but only slightly above last year’s level.
Price growth has clearly cooled way down – earlier this year annual price gains were around 5%, and of course double-digit gains were common in 2021; now we’re looking at flat-to-1% growth, essentially flatlining. This is a strong sign that the market is rebalancing from a seller’s market toward a more neutral market.
Pricing Shifted Towards Buyers
One key insight for agents is pricing dynamics have shifted in favor of buyers compared to recent years. Today’s buyers have more leverage to negotiate on price. For instance, the typical home is now **selling below its asking price. The median sale price is about 6% lower than the median list price (roughly a $26,000 difference on a $422K asking price).
That’s a big change from 2021-2022, when it was common for homes to sell above asking due to bidding wars. Now, with sellers outnumbering buyers in many markets, we’re seeing fewer over-ask offers. Only about 28% of homes are selling above list price today, down from roughly one-third a year ago (and down sharply from the frenzy peak).
Many sellers are even cutting their list prices to attract buyers – about one in five sellers has slashed their price recently, which is the highest rate of price reductions in years. Zillow’s data echoes this trend, noting that nearly 26% of listings had a price cut in May, a record high for that month.
Ambitious Overpricing is Risky
For your seller clients, the message is clear: ambitious overpricing is risky in this climate. Homes that are even slightly overpriced are likely to sit on the market and invite negotiations from buyers. Sellers need to price realistically and make sure their home presents well (clean, repaired, and staged), since buyers have more choices and will gravitate to the best-value listings.
As one real estate economist put it, “sellers are open to negotiating in today’s cooling market,” and if a home isn’t priced right or in great shape, buyers will pass it by or negotiate the price down.
Buyer Affordability
For buyers, stable prices and more frequent price cuts are encouraging. Your buyers may feel relieved that they don’t have to bid $50K over asking anymore to secure a home. They can take time to compare options, and even negotiate seller concessions in some cases.
However, affordability is still a hurdle – prices are historically high (we’re at record sale prices, even if growth has paused) and combined with high interest rates (see below), the average mortgage payment remains near an all-time high. In short, prices are no longer skyrocketing – which is good news – but high housing costs haven’t disappeared.
Agents should help buyers balance patience with realism: the market is cooler but not “cheap.” Expect more of a balanced market feel this week, where neither side has a huge upper hand: buyers get some bargains, sellers still get fair market value if they price appropriately.
Mortgage Rates Remain High but Steady
Mortgage interest rates continue to loom large over the housing market’s tempo. This week, rates are hovering in the high-6% range for a 30-year fixed loan – roughly 6.8% on average. The good news is that rates have been relatively steady in recent weeks and are actually slightly lower than they were a year ago (mid-6% now versus over 7% in mid-2024).
In fact, after some volatility, the 30-year fixed rate dipped to about 6.84% last week, the lowest level since April. This stability is partly because the Federal Reserve is expected to hold its policy rates unchanged at its meeting this week, thanks to cooling inflation and a solid job market outlook. A Fed pause gives a signal that no big rate jumps are imminent, which has helped calm mortgage rates recently.
"Steady" Doesn't Mean Cheap
However, “steady” doesn’t mean “cheap.” At ~6.8%, mortgage rates are still roughly double what they were in 2021, and remain near the highest levels in 15 years. This elevated borrowing cost continues to pose challenges to homebuyers.
High rates directly hit buying power – many buyers find that a monthly payment on a median-priced home is hundreds of dollars more than a few years ago, reducing how much house they can afford.
This is one reason overall home sales are muted. NAR’s Chief Economist noted that sales are relatively subdued, largely due to persistently high mortgage rates, and that lower rates would likely bring more buyers (and sellers) back into the market.
In other words, demand is there, pent-up, but affordability limits are holding it back.
Mortgage Application Data
We can see the effect of rates in the mortgage application data. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey for mid-June showed a small 2.6% decrease in total mortgage applications from the prior week, even though rates ticked down.
Purchase loan applications fell about 3% week-over-week (seasonally adjusted), as ongoing economic uncertainty kept some buyers on the sidelines despite the rate relief. The silver lining is that buyer interest is still higher than it was a year ago: purchase applications are about 14% higher than the same week last year, reflecting that this time in 2024 the market was even slower.
There was also a big jump in early June – one report noted applications spiked over 12% in the first week of June, hitting their highest level in a month (likely a rebound after the Memorial Day lull). So while week-to-week demand zigzags, the overall trend compared to last year is slightly improved buyer interest.
More Pre-Qualified Buyers
For agents, this means you might be seeing more pre-qualified buyers now than last summer, but many are still rate-sensitive. Every small dip in rates (say from 7% down to 6.7%) tends to bring out a few more buyers – and conversely, any rate uptick can quickly cool things again.
We also note that refinance activity remains subdued (though refinance applications are up from last year’s rock-bottom levels), which is expected given most homeowners have rates far below today’s levels. Until mortgage rates make a decisive move down into, say, the low 6% or 5% range, expect buyers to remain cautious.
Many first-time buyers continue to struggle with the dual whammy of high rates and high prices, which is keeping some of them in rentals longer (or seeking down-payment assistance programs).
The takeaway: the cost of financing is the primary hurdle in the 2025 market, and it’s keeping overall demand in check – but it’s not knocking demand out entirely. Buyers who are motivated (relocations, growing families, etc.) are finding ways to navigate the rates, especially now that they have a bit more negotiating power on prices.
Buyer Activity and Sentiment
Buyer activity in the market is steady but not overheated as we enter the week of June 23. With the spring season behind us, homebuying demand is running a bit lukewarm. Nationwide, pending home sales (homes under contract) are roughly flat to slightly down year-over-year – recent data shows pending sales about 1–2% lower than this time last year.
Zillow’s May report actually found newly pending sales up ~0.9% year-over-year, so call it essentially even with last year’s mid-summer demand. This suggests that while demand hasn’t exploded, it’s also not deteriorating further; the market is absorbing roughly the same number of buyers as a year ago, a period which itself was cooled by higher rates.
Demand Signals
Other demand signals reinforce this picture of a slow but steady market. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index (which tracks home tours and requests) is up about 1% from a year ago, though down slightly from a month ago as the spring frenzy fades. Real estate tech company ShowingTime reports that home touring activity is higher than last year at this point – up ~36% since the start of the year, compared to a 28% increase over the same span in 2024.
And Google searches for “homes for sale” are about the same as last year’s volume (no big surge, but no decline). All of this indicates that buyers are out there looking, just a bit more deliberately. They haven’t vanished; if anything, there are slightly more of them than in the very slow 2022-2024 period, but they are taking their time and carefully weighing options.
Why Aren’t More Homeowners Selling, Even with Demand Fairly Stable?
On the seller side, we are seeing some increase in activity (as noted, new listings are up a touch year-over-year), but many potential sellers remain on the fence.
A big reason is the “lock-in effect” of low interest rates – millions of owners have sub-4% mortgages from the last decade, and trading that for a 6-7% rate on a new home deters move-up moves. This contributes to inventory still being below pre-2020 norms. Those who are selling now tend to be people with a pressing need (relocation, changing family needs, etc.) or those who have enough equity and financial cushion to make the math work.
The ones who do list are finding that they face more competition and more discerning buyers. Successful sellers in the current market often price their homes competitively and make sure they’re in good condition to attract offers – this week’s buyers are less inclined to bite on overpriced or “as-is” properties.
Buyer Market Sentiment
Market sentiment among buyers and sellers has actually improved somewhat compared to the dour mood last year. According to Realtor.com’s research, buyer and seller confidence is on the rise – Americans feel a bit better about house-hunting and selling now that the economic outlook has stabilized and job security concerns have eased.
In mid-2024, high inflation and recession fears really dampened sentiment; today, with inflation cooling and unemployment low, people are less worried about losing their jobs or financial instability. This uptick in sentiment doesn’t mean everyone is rushing into the market, but it does mean your clients may be more optimistic and prepared.
Buyers might be saying, “You know, maybe it’s not such a bad time to buy – prices aren’t skyrocketing now,” whereas last year, many felt it was the “worst time to buy.” Sellers, likewise, are regaining some confidence that there are interested buyers out there, even if they have to work a bit harder (price right, maybe offer concessions).
Overall, the mood is cautiously positive: both sides seem to recognize the market is more balanced and predictable than it has been in a while.
Agents Working with Buyers
For agents working with buyers, this week’s climate means you can coach your clients to be thoughtful but ready. Encourage them to get pre-approved (so they can act when they find “the one”) but reassure them they likely won’t need to engage in frantic bidding wars in most cases.
It’s a great time for buyers who were discouraged by the 2022 frenzy – they might actually enjoy some negotiating power and choices now. For agents with sellers, you’ll want to set proper expectations: homes are selling, but typically not overnight and not wildly over asking.
The key is to leverage the improved buyer sentiment by making your listing as attractive as possible (professional photos, minor repairs done, staged if appropriate) and being open to negotiations. Many buyers will still offer contingencies (financing, inspection) and may ask for closing cost help, especially with those high mortgage rates pinching their budgets.
The Future - Summer & Beyond
Looking ahead beyond this week, the national housing market seems poised to remain in this balanced state through the summer. Economists are not predicting a return to the craziness of 2021, nor a crash like 2008.
Instead, the consensus is for stable or gently cooling trends: flat to modestly declining prices by year-end, gradually rising inventory, and moderate sales volumes.
For instance, Redfin’s analysts expect that the current supply-demand mismatch (with supply improving and demand lukewarm) is likely to lead to slight price declines by the end of 2025.
Similarly, Zillow’s latest forecast suggests home values will be essentially flat over the next year (some markets up, some down a bit).
This isn’t a bad thing – a small dip or plateau in prices can actually help with affordability and bring more buyers into the market in the long run.
Future of Inventory
On the inventory front, if new listings continue to come on at a higher pace than last year, we could see inventory by late summer reach its highest level in 5+ years, inching closer to pre-pandemic normalcy. More inventory and stable prices mean the market will feel healthier and less stressful for everyone.
Months’ supply of homes (currently around 4 months nationally) is edging toward that 4–5 month range that experts consider a balanced market – far from the 1–2 month supply of the ultra-seller’s market in 2021. This balance should persist as long as economic conditions stay steady.
Mortgage Rates - Big Wildcard
The big wildcard is mortgage rates. All eyes are on inflation and the Federal Reserve. If inflation keeps trending down, the Fed may not hike rates further, which could eventually allow mortgage rates to ease into the low 6% or even high 5% range by later this year. Such a drop would likely unlock additional buyer demand (there are many would-be buyers waiting in the wings for a sub-6% rate).
Conversely, if inflation flares up or other economic shocks occur, mortgage rates could bounce back above 7%, which would cool the market more and potentially push prices down modestly as buyers step back. For now, the expectation is that the Fed will proceed cautiously, and the best guess is for rates to remain in the 6%–7% band for the coming weeks.
This means no dramatic changes in market conditions – just a slow, gradual grind toward affordability as incomes rise and prices stabilize.
As always, keep calm and sell on!