**Sources (with links) used for this article are compiled at the bottom. These sources would also be good for further reading/research into the topic.
National housing forecasts make headlines every year. But as a real estate agent, you know the old saying: all real estate is local. What’s happening nationally might not match what’s happening in your town.
Instead of repeating a generic 2026 outlook, you can create a simple local housing forecast using data you already have at your fingertips. It’s easier than it sounds and can be a game-changer for showing clients you’re the market expert in your area.
Let’s walk through how to do it.
Why Make a Local Housing Forecast?
Every market has its own story. By building a local forecast, you focus on the trends that your buyers and sellers care about. National predictions (like “home prices will rise 5%” or “sales will slow down”) are broad averages. Your local conditions – inventory, demand, and who’s moving in or out – could tell a very different tale.
By crunching your own numbers, you’ll see whether your area is heating up, cooling down, or holding steady. This not only helps you plan for 2026, but it also gives you insightful talking points to share with clients.
Plus, it sets you apart as the agent with hyper-local knowledge, not just someone parroting the national news. As one industry forecast put it, what matters most is what’s expected in your local market.
Gather 3–5 Years of Local Market Data
The first step is digging into your MLS stats. Don’t worry – you don’t need to be a data scientist. Just pull a few key figures and look at their trends over the past three to five years. The idea is to capture enough history to smooth out any one-off crazy year and see the bigger picture. Here’s what to collect...
1) Inventory Levels
How many homes are for sale? Track the number of active listings or months’ supply each year.
Is inventory rising, falling, or flat? A shrinking inventory (fewer homes for sale) often means upward pressure on prices, while rising inventory can ease competition.
2) Home Prices
Look at the median or average sale price in your market by year. Have prices been climbing steadily? Did they plateau or dip at any point?
Knowing the pace of price change (e.g., 3% a year vs 10% a year) will help you set expectations for 2026.
3) Days on Market (DOM)
How long do listings sit before they sell, on average? DOM is a great thermometer for demand. If homes used to take 60 days to sell and now take 30, that’s a sign of a hot market. If the reverse is true, things might be cooling.
Run Reports
Most MLS systems let you run a report to get these stats. If you’re not sure how, check if your local Realtor association publishes an annual market summary, or use tools like RPR (Realtors Property Resource) to pull trends. The key is to get a baseline of where your market has been.
For example, maybe from 2021 to 2025, your area’s median price jumped 25%, inventory fell by half, and average DOM went from 45 days to 20 days. Those are huge shifts that signal a market that’s been favoring sellers.
On the other hand, if prices only nudged up a little and inventory stayed about the same, your market might be more balanced or cooling. By examining how your market performed in previous years, you can make educated guesses about future trends. Patterns often repeat, so recent history is a handy guide for what might come next.
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Check Migration Trends: Are You a “Refuge” or a “Donor”?
Next, consider the people side of the equation – migration. This means looking at who’s moving into your area and who’s moving out. Migration can tell you if your town is a “refuge market” or a “donor market”. These buzzwords sound fancy, but they’re basically describing whether your area gains people or loses people in the moving shuffle.
"Refuge" Markets
“Refuge” markets are places homebuyers flock to for affordability or lifestyle. In the last few years, a lot of folks have been relocating from expensive cities to more affordable ones. For instance, as mortgage rates climbed past 6% in 2022, many budget-conscious buyers started moving to cheaper metros where their dollar stretches further.
Think about mid-sized cities and suburbs with reasonable prices – they became refuges for priced-out buyers. If your area fits this description (good value, lower cost of living), you might have a steady stream of inbound movers fueling housing demand. More demand can mean higher prices and quicker sales.
In fact, some traditionally affordable markets in the Midwest saw double-digit price growth recently because they attracted so many out-of-town buyers. These markets turned into magnets for cost-conscious movers.
"Donor" Markets
“Donor” markets are the ones people are leaving (often donating residents to other places). Big, high-cost cities can fall in this category. For example, cities like New York, Los Angeles, or San Francisco have in recent years seen some residents move out in search of more space or cheaper homes.
If your local market tends to lose folks to other regions, that can take a bit of demand away. Fewer buyers around might mean more moderate price growth – or even a slight softening – unless something else props up the market.
On the bright side, fewer people leaving could also mean your area’s population is stabilizing after a period of decline. It’s important to note this dynamic because it influences how many clients (and what kind) you’ll be working with.
Are you dealing mostly with incoming families from out of state, or are a lot of locals selling and moving elsewhere? The answer will shape your 2026 forecast.
How do you find migration info?
A few ideas:
- Check local government or census data for recent population changes. The U.S. Census Bureau actually tracks where people move – for example, southern states like Florida, Texas and the Carolinas have been **“big winners” in domestic migration thanks to affordability and job opportunities.
- On the flip side, some high-cost or slow-growth areas have seen net outbound movement. You can also look for state-level moving studies (many moving companies publish annual migration reports).
- For a quick peek, try the Census Flows Mapper tool, which lets you select your county and see inbound vs outbound moves (data is a bit lagged, but it’s illuminating).
- Or simply ask around your brokerage: are agents seeing more out-of-state license plates at open houses, or more clients selling because they’re relocating? Identifying whether your market is gaining or losing population – and why – will add valuable context to your forecast.
If you determine you’re in a “refuge” market attracting new buyers, you can anticipate solid demand in 2026. If you’re in a “donor” market, you might forecast a cooler trend or at least know you’ll need to work harder to find buyers, unless other factors (like low inventory) keep things competitive.
Boil It Down to a Few Key Points
Now comes the fun part: turning all that data into a couple of clear talking points. You don’t want to dump a spreadsheet on your clients – you want simple, useful insights. So, take a step back and ask: “What are the one or two biggest things this data is telling me about 2026?”
For example, after gathering your numbers, you might say:
“Our local inventory has been shrinking for four years straight, and homes are selling faster than ever. If that continues, 2026 will remain a seller’s market with upward pressure on prices.”
That’s a powerful yet digestible statement for clients. It’s rooted in data (low inventory, fast sales) but translated into a conclusion they care about (it’s a seller’s market).
Or maybe your findings are different:
“We’ve seen price growth slow from 10% in 2021 to around 2% this past year, and inventory is creeping up. 2026 might finally be a year of flattening prices and a bit more breathing room for buyers.”
Again, simple and directly tied to what the data showed.
Don’t overload people with too many stats
Pick the most telling metrics – usually price and inventory, or inventory and DOM – and make an understandable point. If inbound migration is a big factor, you can make that your angle:
“Our area is attracting a lot of new residents from out of state, which is keeping demand high even though nationally the market is cooling.”
On the other hand, if you know a major employer shut down and people are leaving, your talking point could be:
“With fewer new buyers in town and more homes on the market, we expect things to lean more toward a buyer’s market in 2026.”
When forming these points, pretend you’re explaining it to a friend over coffee, not writing a thesis. Avoid real estate jargon and keep it conversational. For instance, instead of saying “The year-over-year median sales price appreciation is decelerating,” you’d say “Prices aren’t climbing like they used to – the market is pumping the brakes.”
The idea is to make the data relatable. Remember, even though you look at these numbers daily, your clients don’t. As one guide on market reports noted, it’s best to provide clear takeaways without industry jargon so clients get the picture. One or two well-crafted insights will stick in their minds much better than ten charts.
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Put Your Forecast to Work in Client Conversations
Having your custom forecast is terrific – but the real value comes when you use it to inform and impress your clients. Here are a couple of ways to put your local forecast into action...
1. Listing Presentations
When you’re meeting with potential sellers, weave your forecast into your presentation. This shows sellers that you understand the market trajectory, not just the current snapshot. For example, you might include a slide or graphic of the last 3–5 years of home sales or prices in the neighborhood and explain, “Here’s where our market has been and where I see it going in 2026.”
If your data shows low inventory and quick sales, you can advise a new seller that now is a great time to list (since buyers are plentiful and competition among listings is low). You can also set pricing strategy by saying, “Homes have been selling at about 98% of listing price on average, and with demand staying strong, we can price confidently but should still stay realistic.”
Using local housing metrics like inventory levels, recent sale prices, and average days on market in your presentation helps set the right expectations for your seller.
You’re backing up your pricing recommendation with trends, which can really boost the client’s trust. Essentially, you’re answering the seller’s unspoken question: “Why should I list with you?” — because you know the market cold and have a data-informed plan. Sellers love to see that you’re not just winging it; you have evidence to back up your advice.
2. Buyer Consultations
For buyers, your local forecast can guide them on how to approach their purchase. In your initial meetings with new buyers (or in your newsletters and social media), share those one or two key points about 2026. If your analysis suggests rising prices or a continuing seller’s market, you might counsel buyers to act sooner rather than later and be prepared for competition.
You could say, “We expect demand to stay high into next year here in our area. That means when you find a home you love, you need to be ready to move quickly and make a strong offer, because there may be other buyers eyeing it too.” On the flip side, if you predict a calmer market, you can encourage buyers that patience may pay off, or that they might have a bit more room to negotiate on price or repairs.
Buyers will appreciate hearing a localized outlook instead of generic advice. It helps them strategize – whether that means hustling now or maybe having the confidence to take their time if the market will be more in their favor. Either way, you’re empowering them with knowledge.
3. Ongoing Updates
Don’t let your forecast be a one-and-done. Work it into your ongoing client communications. For instance, you can mention it in your email newsletter or a blog post: “2026 Market Preview: What Dallas Buyers and Sellers Can Expect” (tailor to your city). Highlight the bullet points you found, like “inventory likely to stay tight, prices inching up ~3%” or whatever fits.
This not only educates your sphere but also subtly markets your expertise. You become the local economist for your clients. And when mid-2026 rolls around, be sure to look back and update your forecast with any new data – it keeps you current and credible.
Educated Guess
Finally, remember that a forecast is an educated guess, not a guarantee. The goal isn’t to be a fortune-teller who’s right down to the decimal point. The goal is to show that you are on top of the trends and thinking ahead.
Clients understand that unexpected things (economic shifts, interest rate changes, etc.) can alter the picture. What they’ll remember is that you took the time to analyze the market for them. That builds trust and positions you as the knowledgeable friend and professional guide they need.
In a world where many agents might simply say “Next year will be great!” or forward a national article, you’ll be the one saying, “Here’s what our local data says about next year, and here’s what that means for you.” That kind of insight is gold in your listing presentations and buyer meetings.
TLDR...
Using your own MLS stats and a few public data points, you can craft a tailored 2026 housing forecast for your market. It doesn’t have to be complicated – a handful of numbers and common-sense analysis go a long way. To recap, you gathered a few years of local data (inventory, prices, days on market), checked if people are moving in or out of your area, and distilled that into clear takeaways.
Now you have a couple of talking points that are far more meaningful to your clients than any generic national prediction. Use them in your conversations, your marketing, and your consultations. You’ll come across as informed, proactive, and genuinely invested in your clients’ success.
Remember, real estate is local. When you show clients that you understand their corner of the world and can explain what’s ahead, you become more than just an agent – you become a trusted advisor. So go ahead and be that local market guru. Your clients will thank you, and your business will likely benefit in 2026 from the expertise you’ve showcased.
Sources
- Realtor.com Economic Research – 2025 Housing Forecast Highlights (noting that all real estate is local, emphasizing the importance of local market expectations)
- Ahmed Elbatrawy – How to Use MLS Data to Predict Hot Markets (advice on leveraging historical MLS data like prices, inventory, and days on market to forecast trends)
- Realtor.com / The MortgagePoint – Cost-Conscious Homebuyers Flock to Affordable “Refuge Markets” (on migration to affordable areas since 2022 and how “refuge markets” have seen increased demand and price growth)
- National Association of REALTORS® – Migration Trends Report (showing that states with more affordable conditions, e.g. in the South, have led in attracting new residents, illustrating the impact of migration on housing demand)
- Luxury Presence – 9 Critical Components of a Winning Listing Presentation (recommends including local housing market data – inventory levels, prices, days on market – in presentations and explaining it clearly without jargon to set client expectations)